Pew News
HERE is a Pew Research Center survey. I have no idea what any of it means. (I understand what they’re saying, of course. I just have no idea how it will impact the election. I’m flying completely blind on this one. Thank goodness we only have about 3 days to go.)
A nationwide Pew Research Center survey finds voting intentions shifting in the direction of Republican congressional candidates in the final days of the 2006 midterm campaign. The new survey finds a growing percentage of likely voters saying they will vote for GOP candidates. However, the Democrats still hold a 48% to 40% lead among registered voters, and a modest lead of 47%-43% among likely voters.
The narrowing of the Democratic lead raises questions about whether the party will win a large enough share of the popular vote to recapture control of the House of Representatives. The relationship between a party’s share of the popular vote and the number of seats it wins is less certain than it once was, in large part because of the increasing prevalence of safe seat redistricting. As a result, forecasting seat gains from national surveys has become more difficult.
I found the reaction to Kerry’s comments particularly interesting. Lots of folks heard about it, that’s for sure. And it seems to have impacted the famous “independent voters” a bit.
In addition, Sen. John Kerry’s “botched joke” about the war in Iraq attracted enormous attention. Fully 84% of voters say they have heard a lot or a little about Kerry’s remarks with 60% saying they have heard a lot. By comparison, just 26% say they have heard a lot about President Bush’s statement that he will keep Donald Rumsfeld as secretary of defense until he leaves office in 2009. Most voters say Kerry’s statement is not a serious consideration in their vote, but 18% of independent voters say it did raise serious doubts about voting for a Democratic candidate.
I still have absolutely no idea what’s going on. This doesn’t really help.