The Hound Of Ulster

Don’t worry. Ned’s not in the news for anything CRAZY. Yet.

Apparently, he’s planting SEEDS.

Colletti is looking for two significant hitters and a front-line starting pitcher. With roughly $30 million to spend, he’s expected to make a run at just about every big name out there — outfielders Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee and Gary Matthews Jr. and pitchers Barry Zito and Jason Schmidt, etc. The only one he does not seem interested in is outfielder J.D. Drew, who opted out of the final three years of his Dodgers contract last week.

Well, that’s very informative. I’m a big fan of the “everyone but Drew” reporting. That really narrows the field down a lot. Good job, guys. How would I ever be able to sift through all the Hot Stove rumors without you?

THIS is much more helpful - I’m pleased by the Lee news.

3. Because of his defense (and what his defense may be at the end of the longterm deal he’ll require) Carlos Lee will not be signed.

4. They will be a serious player for Soriano and Colletti guesses Soriano will be signed by some team before December 4th to a huge deal in numbers and length.

5. As opposed to last year, he is much more willing to dole out two long term deals this offseason (bat and front line starter) to help “bridge the gap to the young players.”

6. If Dodgers lose out on Soriano and they can acquire a pitcher he will look to trade one young pitcher to get a good power bad in the lineup, not a great one.

7. He does not want to trade more than one young player (blue-chipper) this offseason as he remains committed to their young players.

Much better. I’m a fan of the “only one blue-chipper” line, in particular. Good.

THIS is not, though.

And here’s an interesting thought-experiment.

Player A: 0-2, 2.14 ERA, 63 IP, 50 K (7.14 K/9), 13 BB (1.86 BB/9), 6 HR (.85 HR/9), 46 saves.

Player B: 6-2, 2.07 ERA, 78.3 IP, 107 K (12.29 K/9), 23 BB (2.64 BB/9), 3 HR (.34 HR/9), 24 saves.

So, aside from the obvious fact that Player A has nearly twice as many saves - a stat that is almost 100% about opportunity, what do you notice from that comparison?

Even if you factor in the .5 BB per 9 that he allows, it’s not particularly close. He pitched nearly 20% more than Player A, allowed half as many HRs, has more than twice as many K’s, a slightly better ERA, and infinitely more wins. Actually, 6 times infinite.

Player B looks a lot better, no?

Right. Player A is Trevor “All-Time Save Leader” Hoffman. Player B is Saito. Player A also finished second in the Cy Young vote. Apparently, everyone forgot to tell me that the Cy Young is a lifetime achievement award.

Who votes on these, anyway? Hoffman was not that good. Not even close to a Gagne-type year. In fact, except for a large number of saves, he did only one thing this year: passed Lee Smith. That’s not a Cy Young-caliber stat, though.

This from the group of people that failed to even include TONY on the list of seven finalists. Apparently, it is not even remotely all about winning. Good thing these same guys aren’t voting for HOF candidates.

Wait, what?

(HT: TRUE BLUE LA)

Here is the latest:

The news this morning (Wednesday) is encouraging. Father’s speech has improved somewhat and he has more mobility on his left side. His doctors think the pneumonia is being treated successfully. His white blood count and blood chemistry are good. Father and his doctors have requested that visitation be restricted for the time being. For now, visiting hours are from 1-2pm and from 5-7pm with no more than 6 visitors at a time. The visitation restriction is a sign that the threat of Father’s imminent passing is greatly reduced, and the restriction will give Father a chance to rest and to continue recovering.

On behalf of Father, his religious superior, his family, and all of us at the College I extend my thanks for your prayers, good wishes, and hospital vigils and visitations. Special thanks are due to those who are organizing so many of the visits. I will remain in contact with his doctors and I will announce any changes in the visitation schedule. Some of Father’s family members are scheduled to arrive tomorrow and I am sure they will want to spend some time alone with Father. It goes without saying that we must continue to keep Father and his caregivers in our prayers.

Keep ‘em coming!

They have learned nothing and forgotten nothing.

That’s a quote from Talleyrand - (Charles Maurice de Talleyrand-Périgord, Prince de Benevente, actually) - courtesy of Andrew STUTTAFORD. And it seems very appropriate at the moment, especially the first half. The Lott ELECTION sends a definite message, but I’m hard-pressed to see it as a good one. Looks a lot more like: “The New Face of the Republican Party looks almost exactly like the hold one. Only a little smaller. And quite a bit older.” Great. (So maybe that’s what was behind THIS election.)

Over in the House, things are still encouraging. POTENTIALLY, anyway.

The current whip — Rep. Roy Blunt of Missouri, who hopes to retain the position — has talked about the need for “cultural change in Washington,” but is an old ally of ousted leader Tom DeLay. It didn’t help that he attended a fundraising golf tournament last weekend, just days after his party lost 30 seats amid charges of corruption.

“Mr. Blunt is proud of the significant financial assistance he has given to hundreds of Republican members and candidates and believes that fundraising is a necessary part of recapturing our majority in 2008,” his spokeswoman said.

Challenging Mr. Blunt is Rep. John Shadegg of Arizona, a conservative who lost his bid earlier this year for majority leader.

“He was one of the guys who got here in the ‘94 Republican revolution and didn’t go native,” said Rep. Paul D. Ryan, Wisconsin Republican, who supports Mr. Shadegg.

But others say Mr. Shadegg is uninspiring and aloof. Many have settled on Rep. Eric Cantor of Virginia, Mr. Blunt’s chief deputy whip, who actively supports Mr. Blunt’s re-election.

“Everybody is asking why Cantor is not running,” said one Republican staffer who requested anonymity to speak freely about the leadership race.

SOME think it’s not a done deal, by any means.

These supporters are concerned that Blunt’s tally is soft heading into the election and that some of his confirmed votes will buck him on the secret ballot. Whips rank their votes on a number scale to account for the level of support, and many of the whip’s supporters are not hard commitments, one ally said yesterday.

And Pence continues his PUSH, as well.

What a mess.

THIS story is all the rage in the Catholic blogosphere.

We’re appealing to members of the diocese who respect God’s teachings of love and compassion of all creatures to halt the inhumane deer killing.

Talk about “big tent Catholicism.” Wow.

Real Clear Politics’ Tom Bevan ADDRESSES what he describes as the erroneous “Bush factor.”

It looks like the “rule” that undecideds always break disproportionately for the challenger proved true Missouri, but not in Montana. In any case, it’s impossible to say how much Bush’s last-minute visits had to do with the outcome in either of these races.

Basically, I think he’s saying that Chuck TODD is being inconsistent. Not that he’s lying, or even that he’s wrong. But that the evidence he’s using seems to be switching sides.

The Libby STORY has gone under the radar. Way under. In fact, a radar that could track this story probably hasn’t even been invented yet. But it’s still interesting.

“It is doubtful that anyone committed an ‘underlying crime’ here,” Libby’s lawyers wrote. “The government’s investigation began as an effort to discover which government officials had ‘leaked’ Ms. Wilson’s affiliation with the CIA to Mr. Novak. After years of overheated media speculation that Ms. Wilson’s identity had been publicly revealed as part of a White House plot to wreak revenge on her husband, Mr. Armitage (who was no White House ally) finally confirmed in August 2006 that he was Mr. Novak’s primary source.”

Libby’s attorneys said Fitzgerald has perpetuated the notion that Libby was the source and said the former aide should be allowed to tell jurors that he was not - and thus had no reason to lie to the FBI or grand jury.

“Members of the jury will have heard for years that Mr. Libby leaked classified information about Valerie Wilson’s affiliation with the CIA, due to inaccurate reports in the press,” defense attorneys wrote. “Indeed, the government has contributed to the likely misimpressions that potential jurors will have about this case.”

Fitzgerald has not specifically commented on that allegation. In court papers, he has argued that the upcoming trial should not be a forum to debate the leak itself or question why Libby was charged and others weren’t.

Seems fair enough.

And THIS is a great Jim Hill article.

Of course, to really understand Lasseter’s decision, you have to realize that “Enchanted” (I.E. Walt Disney Studios’ big release for the 2007 holiday season) features a score by Alan Menken & Stephen Schwartz. And that this Kevin Lima film — just like “The Frog Princess” is supposed to do — uses traditional animation to tell the story of a Disney Princess who finds herself in a rather unusual situation. And let’s not forget that Glen Keane’s “Rapunzel” is still also out there in the bushes, waiting to show the world what a CG version of a Disney Princess will look like.

So let’s say that you’re the new head of WDFA. And you know that — even though it’s been 15 years since Disney Feature Animation produced a fairy tale (I.E. 1992’s “Aladdin”) — you’ve now got three (count ‘em, three) movies that prominently feature princesses that the Mouse is bringing to the market within the same three year period. So what do you do to make sure that movie-goers will be able to differentiate between these three somewhat similiar projects? So that your critics won’t be able to say “Disney’s just repeating itself. They keep trotting out the same old tired thing” ?

Well, for starters, you make sure that “Enchanted,” “Rapunzel” and “The Frog Princess” don’t have a common composer. Which is why Alan Menken & Stephen Schwartz are handling the music for Kevin Lima’s movie, Jeanine Tesoriis writing songs for Glen Keane’s directorial debut and Randy Newman just got assigned to work with John Musker & Ron Clements.

More to the point, Lasseter realizes what’s really riding on “The Frog Princess.” Which is the revival of traditional animation at Walt Disney Studios. If this picture tanks, traditional may never get another shot at the Mouse House. Which is why John is taking no chances with this Ron’n'John production.

Check out some of the comments. Those people get really heated. Makes it seem almost political.

THIS just blows my mind.

And Boston knows another risk is that agent Scott Boras is likely to ask for a three-year contract that allows Matsuzaka to be an unrestricted free agent at its conclusion. Boras, now stuck with one team and 30 days to strike a deal, knows Matsuzaka will be much more valuable on the open market at age 29.

“You went into this knowing it’s probably a three-year deal,” said one executive of a team in the bidding for Matsuzaka. “That’s something you had to build in as a given.”

So take the reported $45 million posting fee and conservatively assume another $30 million for three years (the Sox gave Beckett, a less durable and accomplished pitcher, a three-year, $30 million extension with a fourth-year option this year) and the Sox may be sinking $75 million into three years for a pitcher.

I did some quick math, and I came up with $25M-a-year. That’s insane. No pitcher is worth that. Heck, A-Rod wasn’t worth that, and he plays 160+ games a year. What are the Red Sox thinking? Is their farm system really that bare?

Of course, it could be worse. They could be talking about THIS.

The Dodgers are targeting a proven middle reliever to help get through the sixth and seventh innings, which were problematic last season. Their wish list includes Ron Villone, Justin Speier, Russ Springer, Chad Bradford and David Weathers.

I can hardly wait to find out which of those guys we get. At least we won’t be giving him $25M.

Jon Weisman LINKS to a relevant Baseball Prospectus ARTICLE.

The thing to tuck away as we head into the Winter of the Massive Cashier’s Checks is that our scales are not correctly calibrated for what we’re about to see. Every contract is going to be a head-scratcher, because all the new money coming into the industry is, as it has done for decades, going through the owners’ pockets and into the players’. The notion of cost-per-marginal-win, or the examples of contracts that have been signed in past seasons, won’t help guide our evaluations. It may be impossible to evaluate the deals we’ll see beyond the skills, age and projected performance of the player being signed, and how that impacts his team’s chance to win. There will be no bargains in this market, at least not in the moment; it will take a year or two before we know again what “overpaid” and “underpaid” means.

And I thought this was an interesting comment from Weisman’s post.

While FA salaries are about to skyrocket, pre-arbitration players now go from “bargain” to “outright steal.” The minimum salary for the 2006 season was $327,000, and I can’t imagine that going much higher in 2007.
Next season, Mark DeRosa - a 32-year-old utilityman with a career OPS+ of 90 - will make more than 13 times more than what a rookie will make. As I see it, teams would be wise to spend big dollars only for the blue-chip FAs, avoid bidding wars for middle-level talent and invest, invest, invest in the farm system.

I’m definitely inclined in the Delucci/Erstad/Roberts-type direction myself. At least at the moment. And maybe a little bit of Huff. I just can’t see it making sense to spend this sort of money on one guy. But maybe that’s a problem with “perspective.” I do know this, though: David Wright and Travis Hafner will be the biggest bargains in baseball for the next 5 years. By a large margin.